Status of Prairie Ducks
Dry Conditions, Fewer Breeding Ducks Should Spell Below-Average Production

It’s difficult to find any good news in this year’s Waterfowl Breeding Population and Habitat Survey, but that hasn’t stopped Delta Waterfowl President Rob Olson from looking.

“The prairie breeding grounds received pretty decent moisture right after the surveys were conducted, and in some areas the rain continued into July,” says Olson, putting an optimistic spin on the otherwise-dreary Division of Migratory Birds Management data. “Even though the moisture was late in arriving, it may have sparked an increased re-nesting effort with mallards and pintails, it may have benefited some of the late-nesting species and it hopefully will result in improved brood survival.

“Perhaps the best news is that if the moisture continues, the breeding grounds could be in great shape by next spring.”

Beyond that, Olson says most of the data provided by the world’s most extensive wildlife survey suggests the duck-production glass is half empty: May ponds were down 29 percent in prairie Canada and off 16 percent in the US portion of the prairie pothole region.  The combined US-Canada pond count was down 24 percent from a year ago and was 19 percent below the long-term average.

The total breeding population in the traditional survey area was 32 million birds, 11 percent less than 2003 and three percent below the long-term average. The mallard population was 7.425 million, a drop of seven percent from 2003 and down one percent from the long-term average.

“When you analyze the whole package,” says Olson, “it appears that duck production this year will be below average.  Let’s face it, average breeding populations and below-average May ponds usually translate into below-average production.

“It’s May ponds that drive duck production,” Olson says, “and the breeding grounds were pretty dry when the mallards and pintails arrived back on the prairies. 

“When ducks don’t find water on the prairies, many will over-fly the prairies and settle into the bush country further north.”

Olson notes that the northern reaches of Manitoba, Ontario and Saskatchewan attracted 15 percent more total ducks and 11 percent more mallards than the long-term average.  The Alaska/Yukon Territory/Old Crow Flats survey area had 57 percent more ducks and 138 percent more mallards than the long-term average.

“The number of birds that settled north of the prairies doesn’t bode well for production,” Olson says.

A May blizzard that swept across portions of southeast Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba and northern North Dakota provided much-needed moisture for those regions, but probably didn’t benefit duck production as much as might be expected. 

“The blizzard probably interrupted the initial nesting effort by mallards and pintails,” Olson says, “and a strong over-flight of prairie ducks like mallards, pintails and blue-winged teal apparently had already occurred by the time of the storm.

“Besides, with the exception of northeast North Dakota, most of the region was so dry the runoff from that blizzard soaked directly into the ground rather than pooling up in seasonal and temporary wetlands.”      

Even numbers that appear to be good news don’t stand up under scrutiny, says Olson.  “The survey shows a 25 percent increase in the number of May ponds for Montana and the western Dakotas, but that’s misleading,” he says.  “Eastern Montana remained in a drought despite an apparent increase in pond numbers.  The number was an anomaly caused by recording methods, and wasn’t a true indication of moisture conditions across the survey area.”

Ron Reynolds of Fish and Wildlife’s Habitat and Population Evaluation Team (HAPET) in Bismarck agrees with Olson’s assessment of production potential.  “Obviously any moisture helps,” says Reynolds of the late precipitation, “but as far as pulling us out of a bad start, I doubt the late rains will have a huge impact on productivity. 

“We should see some production across the northern tier of counties in North Dakota, which attracted quite a few ducks because they were wet early,” Reynolds says.  “But we don’t expect much production in the southern part of the state or across South Dakota, which were really dry.” 

On the positive side, much of the pothole region received average or above-average rainfall during May and June, which temporarily relieved near-drought conditions.  “That moisture may have created enough small wetlands to keep hens on the nest,” Olson says.  “And it should help with brood survival. 

“Mostly, we’re just keeping our fingers crossed that the moisture continues and that we get plenty of snow across the breeding grounds this winter.  Then maybe we’ll get some ducks back next spring.”

The Over-flight Factor

“It’s not fair to say the duck population went down from last spring to this spring,” says Olson.  “It’s more complex than that.   Ducks returning to the breeding grounds key on temporary and seasonal wetlands, and if they don’t find them many will over-fly the prairies and sit out the summer far to the north, where they’re less likely to be counted. The ducks still exist, but their numbers aren’t reflected in the survey.

“It’s the reverse of what likely happened a year ago when the prairies received some much-needed late-winter precipitation and we saw a spike in the number of breeding ducks counted,” he says.  “Duck populations probably didn’t increase dramatically last spring, it’s just that more birds settled in areas where they’re more apt to be counted.

“The good news is that this year’s breeding ducks still exist and they’ll be migrating south this fall.  The bad news is that the ones that over-flew the prairies probably weren’t very productive this year.

“But if water conditions are good on the prairies next spring, we could see a nice bounce in the spring breeding population.”

Canvasback Numbers Up, Blue-winged Teal Drop

• Wigeon dropped 22 percent from the previous year to just under 2 million birds. That’s about 25 percent below the long-term average.
  
  
• Blue-winged teal numbers, which in 2000 peaked at an all-time record 7.4 million  breeding birds, dropped by 26 percent to 4.1 million.  That’s the lowest blue-winged population since 1993, the year the last drought ended.
  
  
• Green-winged teal slipped by 8 percent to 2.5 million, but remain 33 percent above the long-term average.
  
  
• Northern pintail continued their long decline, slipping another 15 percent to 2.2 million breeding birds, 48 percent below the long-term average.  The pintail population peaked at over 10 million birds in 1956.
  
  
• Canvasback numbers jumped by 11 percent despite a 1,000 percent increase in harvest last fall. The 617,000 breeding population is 10 percent higher than the long-term average.
  
  
• Scaup across the traditional survey area rose by 2 percent to 3.8 million, but remain 27 percent below the long-term average.

The Eastern Survey

In the eastern survey, the American black duck showed a 37 percent year-to-year increase to 730,000 ducks.  That’s 47 percent higher than the long-term average.

Wigeon slipped 66 percent in the eastern survey, goldeneyes were down 44 percent, green-winged teal rose by 22 percent and ring-necked ducks jumped 67 percent. 

The California Survey

California’s breeding population of ducks this spring stood at 422,800, down dramatically from last year’s 533,700.  The mallard breeding population slipped from 337,100 in 2003 to 262,400 this spring.

Great Lakes Surveys

The Division of Migratory Bird Management uses a process called Adaptive Harvest Management (AHM) to establish hunting regulations.  AHM considers—among other things—the mallard breeding population and the number of May ponds in prairie Canada.

When computing the mallard breeding population, managers use the mallard count from the “traditional survey area” plus breeding mallards from Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.

The mallard breeding population from the traditional survey area this spring was 7.425 million.  Minnesota had 375,313 mallards (up 34 percent from 2003), Wisconsin reported 229,000 (down slightly) and Michigan had 328,772 (up 12 percent).

Thus the total mallard population used by AHM in setting the season framework was 8.3 million.

Spring Breeding Survey

Results from Traditional Survey Area